Industry, academia, and research sectors are optimistic about the prospects of the Chinese instrument and meter market
2024-06-04
The development prospects of the upstream battery industry for instruments are closely related to new energy. Among them, the new energy vehicle industry has achieved good results after integration and honing in 2016. From January to November last year, sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 280000 units, a year-on-year increase of 102%. From the sales trend of the whole year, it mainly presents a development trend of upward stagnation upward, and the new energy vehicle market has experienced tortuous growth throughout the year. In 2017, the entry threshold and management system for the new energy vehicle industry were basically formed, and a relatively stable series of policies will promote the increase of new energy vehicle sales in the new year. It can be seen that the policies of the new energy vehicle industry are moving towards "tightening", specifically manifested in the increase of fiscal policies, production enterprise and product access thresholds, and correspondingly, a more open competitive platform and increased support for new energy vehicle enterprises.
The competition in the battery industry is more severe
In addition to new energy vehicles, new energy vehicles have also implemented a series of strict regulations on the battery industry. This includes opinions on the "Industry Norms and Conditions for Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries in New Energy Vehicles" and the "Interim Measures for the Administration of Industry Norms and Announcements for Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries in New Energy Vehicles", supplementary notices on the "Industry Norms and Conditions for Automotive Power Batteries", draft opinions on the "Industry Norms and Conditions for Automotive Power Batteries (2017)". Under numerous management rules, most battery companies will be rejected and may lead to car companies changing battery suppliers.
For the battery industry, the impact is not only on increasingly strict management systems, but also on the increasingly relaxed battery manufacturing market, which has increased competition among enterprises.
Starting from January 1, 2017, with the lifting of the ban on the use of ternary lithium batteries in buses, the trend of their proportion continuing to increase significantly is irreversible. The recent series of policies have also laid the foundation for the promotion of ternary batteries on buses. In addition, non fast charging pure electric buses will receive electricity subsidies based on the energy density of their battery systems. These changes will encourage manufacturers to use batteries with higher energy density. Compared to lithium iron phosphate batteries with energy density approaching the ceiling, ternary batteries will be more favored. At the same time, the opening up of ternary batteries also means allowing more types of batteries to enter the market. For example, the new types of batteries promoted by Gree Chairman Dong Mingzhu and Yinlong Company, such as lithium titanate batteries, may be accepted by more car companies recently.
In addition, the Catalogue for the Guidance of Foreign Investment Industries has opened up more restrictions on foreign investment access in the automotive industry and new energy vehicle batteries. For example, medium energy power batteries (energy density ≥ 110Wh/kg, cycle life ≥ 2000 times, foreign investment ratio not exceeding 50%) are no longer included in the encouraged list, and this item is also not included in the negative list.
This indicates that energy type power batteries are in a "free state" with no special restrictions, which means that foreign-funded enterprises can carry out wholly-owned production of energy type power batteries nationwide. Wang Binggang, a specially appointed expert in the 863 Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology for the Major Science and Technology Special Project of Electric Vehicles, once told the media that the lifting of restrictions on foreign investment access to new energy vehicle batteries is in line with the overall national strategy of opening up to the outside world. The industry needs to be fully competitive, and policy protection alone cannot cultivate competitive independent brand enterprises.
Facing the market with a more open attitude
Strict management is not the ultimate goal, nor is it about controlling enterprises to death, but rather encouraging good enterprises to do better. The "Notice on Rewarding Policies for New Energy Vehicle Charging Facilities during the 13th Five Year Plan and Strengthening the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles (Draft for Comments)" and the "Technical Conditions for Four Wheel Low Speed Electric Vehicles" have supported the development of the new energy vehicle industry with a more open attitude.
In terms of financial subsidies, it also fully reflects the purpose of policy support for excellent enterprises. According to the recently issued Notice on Adjusting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles, the subsidy will have an upper limit and be settled after the fact. It is important to combine industrial development and technological progress, appropriately increase the requirements for recommended catalog models, establish dynamic adjustment mechanisms, and fully leverage the guiding role of subsidy policies to support the elderly and the strong.
The new subsidy requires enterprises to further improve their technological level in various aspects such as vehicles, power batteries, batteries, and electronic control in the context of subsidy reduction. Only with technological improvement can they receive more subsidies accordingly. This is also the biggest difference between the national subsidy program implemented on January 1, 2017 and before.
The policy of encouraging the development of excellent enterprises is more reflected in the "points management system". In the "Draft Measures for Carbon Quota Management of New Energy Vehicles" and the "Interim Measures for Parallel Management of Average Fuel Consumption and Points of New Energy Vehicles by Enterprises (Draft for Comments)" issued last year, these two measures fully reflect the transformation of the government's guidance on the development of the new energy vehicle industry, from subsidy incentives to a combination of incentives and incentives, from previous financial subsidies to quota constraints on automobile enterprises, from self driving to self driving, and are expected to establish a long-term mechanism for marketization and legalization of the new energy vehicle industry.
